Forecasts about the economy

The year 2021 was marked by the recovery after the corona pandemic and GDP grew by 5.1 percent. Most forecasters foresee lower growth of around 2.0 percent this year and a clear slowdown in 2023.

The corona pandemic caused the world economy to suffer a simultaneous demand and supply shock. Demand fell sharply both because of the restrictions imposed by states and because people changed their behavior, for example by postponing major purchases and generally reducing their consumption. In addition, companies chose to postpone investments, which also contributed to reduced demand.

Also on the supply side, there were particularly large disturbances. Especially in the initial stages of the crisis, closed borders, high sickness rates and personnel in quarantine meant a heavy blow to international trade. This made it more difficult for industry to import inputs, creating bottlenecks and halting production. Some of these disturbances are still noticeable.

In 2021, there was a recovery and GDP grew by 5.1 percent. The forecasters expect GDP to grow by around 2.0 percent for the full year 2022. After that, they foresee a much weaker growth rate of around 1.0 percent. Developments in the labor market follow the economy. The forecasters expect unemployment to be around 7.5 percent this year and then continue to fall back somewhat in the coming years.